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Geoffrey Rose’s Prevention Paradox

Updated on March 31, 2024. Zoom in to the following graph’s red bars; Those red bars represent the probabilities of conceiving a baby with Down syndrome in each group. As we can see in the X-axis, women aged 30 and younger carry the lowest probability risk. Then, the risk level rises with age from 1.3 per cent at 30-34 to 34.6 at 45 and above. Now, zoom in on the blue bars. Those represent the share of women with such babies out of all women who delivered babies having Down syndrome by woman’s age group. Now, the pattern reverses. The…

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